• Bitcoin to $100,000 is still very possible, but here’s the catch

  • This month, Bitcoin’s price rose from a daily low of $40k to a high of more than $47k. However, nothing is constant in this market. A case in point was the king coin, which suffered weekly losses before recovering somewhat at press time.

    Bitcoin supporters have always argued that the asset’s price will reach the six-figure mark by early 2022. While some may argue that this is unrealistic, the remarkable recovery since the local low of $29.7k proves otherwise.

    Bitcoin has the ability to repeat history.

    Many Bitcoin bulls and analysts have compared the current market cycle to the one that occurred in 2015. During that cycle, there was a local top in the early months, followed by a blasting rally north. If that is the case this time, Bitcoin’s price may also see a significant top or a new ATH in 2022.

    Analyst Willy Woo also expressed optimism about the market, claiming that the current price range represents a market bottom. He stated,

    “Long-term investors are still climbing toward their peak accumulation, which indicates bottoms. Early indications suggest that the bull market may extend into 2022, and BTC is on the verge of breaking free from the 4-year internal cycle imposed by the halvenings.”

    Notably, at the current price, 82 percent of Bitcoin hodlers are profiting. When there are so many profitable holders, the incentive to sell is low.

    Another noteworthy feature of this rally has been record outflows.

    The exchange net position change (all exchanges-30d moving average) revealed a peak indicating a return to accumulation. These levels have not been seen since December 2020. Such high negative values indicated that outflows were dominating and that there was a decrease in BTC supply for selling.

    Taking in cash inflows

    While data suggests that accumulation is indeed reaching a peak, could this be the new BTC bottom before the market explodes? If BTC manages to oscillate above this level for an extended period of time, $36.5k-$43k could act as solid support for this cycle.

    Furthermore, according to a Glassnode report, the realized cap began trending higher in late July. It also noted that it recently reached a new all-time high of $379B, indicating that new capital is flowing into Bitcoin. This also implied that the market could withstand sell-side pressure. In such a case, even if sell-offs occur, the market will hold up well.

    While this appears to be a Bitcoin bull’s dream come true, the possibility of this price level being a cycle bottom appears to be reasonable.

    In retrospect, it is also worth noting that BTC rose from $30k to $60k in just four months. If BTC continues to rise, another jump to $100k in the next six months is not out of the question. However, if Bitcoin is unable to maintain its $36.5k-$43k range in the coming months, a 6-figure jump may not be possible until 2023.

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