• Bitcoin has a 60% chance of falling to $10,000 this year, according to the oddsmakers

  • Some people are losing faith in Bitcoin after last month’s dramatic meltdown.

    Fans of Bitcoin, I’ve got some bad news for you! The odds of the world’s most popular cryptocurrency falling to $10,000 this year are 8/11 (or 57.9%) according to US-Bookies.com. The last time Bitcoin’s price fell to that low was on October 2, 2020, when it hit $10,416.

    Given that US-Bookies.com was offering 4-to-1 chances (or 20%) in April that Bitcoin would reach $10,000, today’s odds are bleak. The dramatic change in the last two months suggests growing concern about the world’s most valuable cryptocurrency.

    Bitcoin has been on a historic bull run since October 2020, reaching an all-time high of $64.8k just two months ago. Tesla, SkyBridge Capital, and MicroStrategy’s growing institutional adoption fueled a speculative frenzy, which has since subsided.

    After suffering the greatest drop in its twelve-year history last month, Bitcoin is now back at $35.2k. This was partly due to unfavorable news from China—Chinese payments associations reaffirmed their support for the central bank’s 2017 crypto transaction ban—as well as mounting concerns about Bitcoin’s environmental impact. Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla and a $1.5 billion Bitcoin HODLer, was the most vocal about his fears.

    How the financial sector is putting its money on Bitcoin. Futures traders, on the other hand, are not quite as negative. According to Deribit, the current strike price for Bitcoin futures contracts that expire in December 2021—a wager on Bitcoin’s future price—is around $37k, indicating that futures traders expect the price to remain stable.

    “BTC price appears likely to remain contained until year end,” Singaporean crypto investment firm QCP Capital stated in a market update on June 9.

    “We no longer expect a speedy recovery to $50k… it’s hard to establish a bullish fundamental argument to buy BTC right now,” the firm, which trades Bitcoin futures, added.

    As a result, bookies are pessimistic, while futures traders are more optimistic.

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